Study: AI Could Affect 18-22% of Spanish Jobs, Women More Exposed

A new study from the VRAIN Institute at the Polytechnic University of Valencia (UPV) shows that between 18% and 22% of jobs in Spain could be affected by artificial intelligence (AI). Santa Cruz de Tenerife is one of the provinces where women's jobs are most exposed, with over 20% at risk.

This research, which used data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE), found that the level of AI exposure stayed consistent in 2021 and 2022. This suggests that AI is having a long-term, fundamental impact on Spain's job market.

The study found that Madrid and Barcelona have the highest exposure, with over 21.5% of jobs affected. In contrast, inland provinces like Soria, Zamora, Teruel, Cuenca, and Palencia see lower figures, between 17.5% and 18.5%. This difference is due to their economies: cities and service-based areas have more jobs that AI could transform, while regions focused on agriculture, traditional industries, or construction are less impacted.

Santa Cruz de Tenerife's high exposure is because it has many jobs in sectors like retail, advanced services, education, healthcare, and IT – all areas that are easily automated and digitalized.

The report also points to a clear difference between men and women. Jobs held by women are between 1.3 and 3 percentage points more exposed to AI than those held by men, and this gap is even wider in areas with many service jobs. This is because women often work in fields like education, healthcare, administrative services, and retail, where AI can be used more easily. In contrast, they are less common in sectors that are harder to automate, such as construction or heavy industry.

The provinces where AI most affects women's jobs are Madrid, Illes Balears, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Barcelona, Cantabria, and Málaga, where 21.5% or more of women's jobs are exposed. For men, the exposure is lower. In provinces like Madrid, Las Palmas, Barcelona, or Santa Cruz de Tenerife, it's around 20-21%. In inland Spain, this figure drops to 16.5-18%, largely because of the strong presence of industry and construction.

The VRAIN team, led by Antoni Mestre, Xavier Naya, Manoli Albert, and Vicente Pelechano, shared their findings with union representatives from Spain's Economic and Social Council (CES) and government officials, including Diana Morant, the Minister of Science, Innovation and Universities.

This report helps predict potential inequalities between different regions and genders. It can also guide job retraining programs and support fair policies as automation increases. Mestre stressed that with national plans for digitalization and AI already in place – like the National AI Strategy (ENIA) and the PERTE for the New Language Economy – this analysis is crucial for a smooth shift in the job market.

The researchers concluded, "AI has the potential to boost productivity, improve public services, and create skilled jobs. However, it could also make inequalities worse if we don't fully prepare for its impact."