Aemet Forecasts Warmer, Drier Spring for Canary Islands

The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) expects the Canary Islands to experience a warmer-than-average spring this year, with March, April, and May likely to be drier than usual. According to the agency, there is a 50% chance that temperatures will exceed historical averages, while the likelihood of a cooler-than-average season is just 20%. Regarding rainfall, models suggest a 40% chance of below-average precipitation, compared to a 25% chance of a wetter-than-normal quarter.

This forecast follows a broader trend of rising temperatures across Spain. The past winter was the ninth warmest since records began in 1961, marking the eighth consecutive winter with above-average temperatures. This ongoing pattern indicates that climate change is shifting seasonal cycles, putting increasing pressure on authorities to manage water supplies effectively.

However, Aemet spokesperson Rubén del Campo noted that predicting localized, high-intensity weather events remains difficult. Sudden storms and "danas" (isolated high-altitude depressions) are highly volatile and localized, meaning they cannot be captured by seasonal forecasts, which should be viewed as general trends rather than precise alerts.

While seasonal predictions have their limits, medium-term forecasting has improved significantly. Thanks to investments in satellites and international scientific cooperation, we can now reliably forecast weather up to ten days in advance—a major improvement over the three-to-four-day window available in the 1990s. This global monitoring is essential for navigating the climate uncertainty of the current decade.